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No deal, no exit: How US-Iran standoff risks fresh conflict

Three months after the United States and Israel staged an attack on Iran, a US blockade and Tehran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz have created a deadlock, with neither side bending, economic pain deepening and the risk of ​renewed war rising. A growing concern among policymakers is not whether a deal is near, but how long tensions can persist before a miscalculation by Washington or Tehran triggers renewed conflict. Calls for a fresh strike are growing louder in the US ‌and Israel, even though public opinion of the war skews against renewed strikes, with some officials arguing that increased pressure could weaken Tehran's leverage and force Iran back to the negotiating table. "There is one major problem with this theory: We have already tested it, repeatedly, and Iran did not capitulate," said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher on Iran at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies and former head of the Iran branch in Israeli Defence Intellig...
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Putin trip aims to show China ties unshakeable after Trump pomp

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Beijing on Tuesday for talks with his Chinese counterpart and his "long-time good friend" Xi Jinping, intending to show their ties are unshakeable days after a visit by Donald Trump. The confirmation of Putin's trip came just hours after Trump wrapped up his visit on Friday, the first by a US president to China in nearly a decade and one aimed at stabilising their turbulent relations. Putin and Xi are set to discuss how to "further strengthen" Russia and China's strategic partnership and "exchange views on key international and regional issues", according to a Kremlin statement. Their ties have deepened since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Putin visiting Beijing every year since. Moscow is diplomatically isolated on the global stage and is heavily dependent economically on Beijing, with China now the main buyer of sanctioned Russian oil. Setting warm tones for the visit, the two leaders exchanged "congratulatory letters" on Sunday to mark 30 years of their countries' strategic partnership. Read: China, Russia block UNSC move on Hormuz Xi said cooperation between Russia and China had "continuously deepened and solidified", according to Chinese state media. And in a video message to the Chinese people released Tuesday, Putin said relations have reached "a truly unprecedented level" and that "trade between Russia and China continues to grow". "The close strategic relationship between Russia and China plays a major, stabilising role globally. Without allying against anyone, we seek peace and universal prosperity," Putin added, without mentioning any third country. The two leaders are also expected to sign a joint declaration after the talks. 'Dear old friends' When Putin last visited Beijing in September 2025, Xi welcomed him with open arms as an "old friend" -- language the Chinese leader did not extend to Trump last week. Read More: European lawmakers criticise von der Leyen remarks linking Türkiye, Russia and China Putin, who in turn called Xi his "dear friend", will be keen to show the world their relations are unaffected by Trump's visit. While Putin's visit is not expected to receive the same pomp as Trump's, "the Xi-Putin relationship does not require that kind of performative reassurance", said Patricia Kim from the Brookings Institution in Washington. Both sides view ties as "structurally stronger and more stable" than the China-US ones, she added. While Beijing has regularly called for talks to end the war in Ukraine, now over four years long, it has never condemned Russia for sending in troops -- presenting itself as a neutral party. Trump and Xi discussed Ukraine last week, but the US president left China without a breakthrough. "Xi will almost certainly brief Putin on his summit with Trump," Kim said. The lack of clear outcomes from the Xi-Trump meeting, though, "likely reassures Moscow that Xi did not strike any understanding with Trump that would materially undercut Russian interests". Appetite for oil Putin will be hoping for China to deepen its commitment to Moscow, after Trump told Fox News during his visit that Beijing had agreed to buy US oil to feed its "insatiable" appetite for energy. Also Read: China has agreed to address US concerns over rare earth shortages, says White House With Russia reliant on sales to China to sustain its war effort, "Putin does not want to lose that support", Asia Society's Lyle Morris told AFP. "Putin will likely be keen to hear from Xi about China's next step in the Middle East," added Morris, after "Trump signalled clearly that he hopes Beijing will play a leading role". When it comes to the US-Israeli war on Iran, though, China and Russia may have different priorities. "(China) relies on the freedom of the world's major waterways to sustain its economic activities, and would prefer that the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz end sooner rather than later," James Char of Singapore's Nanyang Technological University told AFP. On the other hand, Moscow has "been benefitting economically from the fighting in Iran due to the relaxation of sanctions against Russian energy supplies, so it may have a different view". After meeting Xi in April, Russia's top diplomat Sergei Lavrov said Russia could "compensate" for China's energy shortages as the war hits global supplies. "Expanded energy ties may feature prominently at the meeting (as) Beijing seeks more Russian energy," said Joseph Webster from the Atlantic Council. "From Moscow's perspective, shipping more oil east may be more attractive in the wake of Ukraine's relentless campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure".

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